Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. He'd need to make the playoffs, but given that Pittsburgh's +175 to go over eight in the alternative win total markets, it's worth a shot for a big payout. Tomlin (+3000) is a perfect candidate to get the credit for salvaging a transitional year. After a season in Buffalo watching Josh Allen and listening to Brian Daboll, he may be in a better spot to use the talent that made him a No. Trubisky (+1200) is a sneaky choice for Comeback Player of the Year. However, avoid him in this market for now because we're not sure he'll be the Week 1 starter. Pickett (+600) is the Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite because he's the most likely first-year quarterback to play. The Steelers' season would also be torpedoed if Trubisky and Pickett play worse than Rudolph and Hodges did three years ago. The other three AFC North teams are the biggest threat to Tomlin extending his non-losing-season streak, which is essentially what a bet on Pittsburgh's win total hinges on. I believe those wins come from coaching continuity and teams being able to find edges in game-planning and special teams. Tomlin's group had victories over Buffalo, Tennessee, and Cleveland (twice) that felt like they were done using smoke and mirrors. Pittsburgh looked awful throughout the first half of the vast majority of games last year but excelled in the second half to get enough wins to make the playoffs. This group will need to return to its 2020 level. The Steelers were in the back half of the NFL in yards per play allowed, opponents' yards per pass attempt, and takeaways in 2021. Watt winning Defensive Player of the Year, the unit took a step back in 2021. Pittsburgh's strength in 20 was the defense's ability to carry the offense. Whether they turn to Trubisky and his mobility or rookie Kenny Pickett, the Steelers have enough surrounding talent to play complementary football. While Pittsburgh's offense may not be its strength, it will be relative to the perception of most bettors.
This is a telling example of how everything is relative in the betting market. Despite the awful quarterback play, the Steelers went 9-6-1. They combined for 2,828 passing yards, a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 18:17, and a QBR in the 30s. The last time we saw Pittsburgh without Roethlisberger, the team ran out rookies Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges in 2019 for 14 of 16 games. Trubisky was often a frustrating watch in Chicago, even though he quarterbacked the Bears to a pair of playoff appearances, but he's the veteran option.
The Steelers have proven they can win with Player C's numbers, which are from Mitch Trubisky's 2020 season. They get a similar situation in Cincinnati this year and are back in Buffalo at a projected point spread even higher than last season. Lookahead Steelers opened last season in Buffalo as touchdown underdogs, lost every key stat category, and still won the game despite only 188 passing yards from Roethlisberger and 3.6 yards per rush.
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